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<h1 class="title" id="page-title">Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 13</h1>
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<span property="dc:title" content="Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 13"
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<span class="submitted"><span property="dc:date dc:created"
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<p style="text-align: left;" align="center"> </p>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center"><strong>Karolina Hird, George
Barros, Grace Mappes, Madison Williams, and Frederick W.
Kagan</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center"><strong>December 13, 6:30pm
ET</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Click </strong><a
href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375"><strong>here</strong></a><strong>
to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this
report.</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Belarusian forces remain unlikely to
attack Ukraine despite a snap Belarusian military readiness check on
December 13. </strong>Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko
ordered a snap comprehensive readiness check of the Belarusian military
on December 13. The exercise does not appear to be cover for
concentrating Belarusian and/or Russian forces near jumping-off
positions for an invasion of Ukraine. It involves Belarusian elements
deploying to training grounds across Belarus, conducting engineering
tasks, and practicing crossing the Neman and Berezina rivers (which are
over 170 km and 70 km away from the Belarusian-Ukrainian border,
respectively).[1] Social media footage posted on December 13 showed a
column of likely Belarusian infantry fighting vehicles and trucks
reportedly moving from Kolodishchi (just east of Minsk) toward Hatava
(6km south of Minsk).[2] Belarusian forces reportedly deployed 25
BTR-80s and 30 trucks with personnel toward Malaryta, Brest (about 15 km
from Ukraine) on December 13.[3] Russian T-80 tanks reportedly deployed
from the Obuz-Lesnovsky Training Ground in Brest, Belarus, to the Brest
Training Ground also in Brest (about 30 km from the Belarusian-Ukrainian
Border) around December 12.[4] Russia reportedly deployed three MiG-31K
interceptors to the Belarusian airfield in Machulishchy on December
13.[5] These deployments are likely part of ongoing Russian information
operations suggesting that Belarusian conventional ground forces might
join Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.[6] ISW has written at length about
why Belarus is extraordinarily unlikely to invade Ukraine in the
foreseeable future.[7]</p>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center"><a
href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/BelarusianReferenceMapDecember13%2C2022.png"><img
src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/BelarusianReferenceMapDecember13%2C2022.png"
width="500" height="765" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Ukrainian officials continue to assess
that Belarus is unlikely to attack Ukraine as of December 13.
</strong>The Ukrainian General Staff reiterated on December 13 that the
situation in northern Ukraine near Belarus has not significantly changed
and that Ukrainian authorities still have not detected Russian forces
forming strike groups in Belarus.[8] The Ukrainian State Border Guard
Service reported that the situation on the border with Belarus is under
control despite recent Belarusian readiness checks.[9]</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Russian milbloggers accused the Russian
Ministry of Defense (MoD) of engaging in performative "excessive
reporting" instead of addressing systemic issues with the Russian
military and Russian operations in Ukraine. </strong>A prominent
Russian milblogger discussed the "vicious practice of photo reports" in
the Russian military and noted that Russian soldiers are often made to
dress in statutory uniforms and appear on camera to propagate a sense of
preparedness and professionalism instead of actually preparing for
combat missions.[10] The milblogger emphasized that such demonstrations
are purely theatrical and create a false sense of coherency in the
Russian Armed Forces without actually addressing substantive issues with
logistics, communications, and basic provision of units.[11] Several
other milbloggers amplified this discussion and accused Russian
authorities of engaging in "excessive reporting" in order to inundate
the information space with photo and video artifacts that aim to
"justify the existence" of the Russian MoD and create a guise of success
for Russian operations in Ukraine.[12] One source emphasized its
discontent with such "excessive reporting" and called the Russian MoD
"the Ministry of Camouflage and Selfies."[13] Russian milbloggers
continue to leverage their platforms and notoriety to launch nuanced
critiques at the Russian MoD in a way that continues to indicate a
growing rift between the bureaucratic practices of the MoD and the
realities faced by Russian soldiers on the ground and reported on by a
slate of Russian military correspondents. Such discourse allows
prominent voices in the nationalist information space to advocate for
substantive change while undermining the MoD establishment.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Senior Israeli officials stated that
Iran seeks to limit the range of missiles it plans to provide
Russia. </strong><em>Axios </em>reported on December 12 that Iran
fears international backlash from providing Russia with long range
missiles to use in the war in Ukraine and noted that United Nations (UN)
Security Council Resolution 2231 passed in 2015 prevents the transfer or
receipt of Iranian ballistic missiles with a range over 300 kilometers
and a payload over 500 kilograms until October 2023.[14] <em>Axios
</em>noted that violating this resolution could result in a "snapback"
mechanism that reimposes UN sanctions against Iran.[15]</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Ukrainian intelligence reported that
Russian forces are striking Ukraine with missiles that Ukraine
transferred to Russian in the 1990s as part of an international
agreement that Russia explicitly violated by invading Ukraine in
2014 and 2022. </strong>In a comment to <em>The New York Times
</em>Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) representative Vadym
Skibitsky said that Russian forces are using ballistic missiles and
Tu-160 and Tu-95 strategic bombers that Ukraine transferred to Russia as
part of the Budapest Memorandum, whereby Ukraine transferred its nuclear
arsenal to Russia for decommissioning.[16] Russia, the United States,
and the United Kingdom committed in return to "respect the independence
and sovereignty and existing borders of Ukraine." This agreement has
generated some debate about whether or not it committed the United
States and the United Kingdom to defend Ukraine, which it did not do.
There can be no debate, however, that by this agreement Russia
explicitly recognized that Crimea and areas of Donetsk and Luhansk
Oblasts it occupied in 2014 were parts of Ukraine. By that agreement
Russia also committed "to refrain from the threat or use of force
against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine,"
among many other provisions that Russia has violated. Skibitsky noted
that Russia has removed the nuclear warhead from these decommissioned
Kh-55 subsonic cruise missiles, which are now being used to launch
massive missile strikes on Ukraine.[17]</p>
<p> <strong>US officials stated on December 13 that the Pentagon is
finalizing plans to send Patriot missile defense systems to
Ukraine.</strong> The US officials expect to receive the necessary
approvals from Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and President Joe Biden,
and the Pentagon could make a formal announcement as early as December
15.[18] <em>CNN </em>reported that it is unclear how many Patriot
missile systems the Pentagon plan would provide Ukraine, but that a
typical Patriot battery includes up to eight launchers with a capacity
of four ready-to-fire missiles each, radar targeting systems, computers,
power generators, and an engagement control station.[19]</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Russia continues to use concepts of
terrorism as a legal framework for domestic repression.
</strong>Independent Russian outlet <em>Meduza </em>noted on December 13
that Russia has been expanding the concept of terrorism under Russian
legislation over the course of the last two decades, and as recently as
December of this year the State Duma proposed new amendments to the
Russian Criminal Code that equate sabotage with an act of terrorism.[20]
<em>Meduza </em>amplified an investigation by another independent
Russian outlet, <em>Novaya Gazeta</em>, that noted that the Russian
Federal Security Service (FSB) has transitioned from focusing on
defining Islamist militant activity in the Caucasus as terrorism to
orienting terrorism around the concept of Ukrainian "saboteurs."[21] FSB
Head Alexander Bortnikov relatedly claimed on December 13 that there has
been an increase in "terrorist" activity within Russia in 2022, which he
related to Ukrainian Security Services (SBU) supposedly operating with
Western support.[22] Russian authorities seem to be weaponizing the
backdrop of the war in Ukraine to justify expansions of terrorism
legislation under the guise of protecting domestic security. Such
measures likely afford Russian security authorities greater latitude in
cracking down on domestic dissent. As ISW has previously reported,
Russian authorities have taken similar steps to use legal frameworks to
broadly define individuals and actions as dangerous to Russian security
and have recently proposed new bills on expanding the definition of
"foreign agents" and the punishment for crimes considered to be
sabotage.[23]</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Key Takeaways</strong></p>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><strong>Belarusian forces remain unlikely to attack Ukraine despite
a snap Belarusian military readiness check on December
13.</strong></li>
<li><strong>Ukrainian officials continue to assess that Belarus is
unlikely to attack Ukraine as of December 13.</strong></li>
<li><strong>Senior Israeli officials stated that Iran seeks to limit the
range of missiles it plans to provide to Russia in order to
avoid triggering UN "snapback" sanctions.</strong></li>
<li><strong>Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russian forces are
striking Ukraine with missiles that Ukraine transferred to
Russia in the 1990s as part of an international agreement by
which Russia recognized Crimea and all of Donetsk and Luhansk
Oblasts as part of Ukraine and committed not to threaten or
attack Ukraine.</strong></li>
<li><strong>US officials stated on December 13 that the Pentagon is
finalizing plans to send Patriot missile defense systems to
Ukraine.</strong></li>
<li><strong>Russia continues to use concepts of terrorism as a legal
framework for domestic repression.</strong></li>
<li><strong>Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks near Svatove
and Kreminna.</strong></li>
<li><strong>Russian forces made marginal advances within Bakhmut and
continued ground assaults near Avdiivka and Vuhledar.</strong>
</li>
<li><strong>Russian forces may be withdrawing from certain areas south
of the Dnipro River as they continue fortifying rear positions
in occupied Kherson Oblast.</strong></li>
<li><strong>Likely Ukrainian actors downed a bridge in Melitopol,
Zaporizhia Oblast amid increased reports of Ukrainian strikes
against Russian military assets near Melitopol within the past
few days.</strong></li>
<li><strong>The Wagner Group is continuing efforts to use recruits from
Russian prisoners to generate combat power.</strong></li>
</ul>
<div><a
href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCoTDecember13%2C2022.png"><strong><img
src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCoTDecember13%2C2022.png"
width="500" height="706" /></strong></a></div>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong><em>We do not report in detail on
Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in
Western media and do not directly affect the military operations
we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate
and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the
Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in
Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian
violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions,
and humanity even though we do not describe them in these
reports.</em></strong></p>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Ukrainian Counteroffensives—Eastern Ukraine</li>
<li>Russian Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of one subordinate
and one supporting effort);</li>
<li>Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Capture the entirety of Donetsk
Oblast</li>
<li>Russian Supporting Effort—Southern Axis</li>
<li>Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts</li>
<li>Activities in Russian-occupied Areas</li>
</ul>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong><span
style="text-decoration: underline;">Ukrainian
Counteroffensives</span></strong><strong> (Ukrainian efforts to
liberate Russian-occupied territories)</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong><span
style="text-decoration: underline;">Eastern
Ukraine:</span></strong><strong> (Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western
Luhansk Oblast)</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Russian forces continued limited counterattacks
to regain positions northwest of Svatove on December 13. The Ukrainian
General Staff reported that Russian troops unsuccessfully attacked
toward Novoselivske and Stelmakhivka, both about 15km northwest of
Svatove.[24] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian troops
northwest of Svatove are reinforcing positions in preparation for an
anticipated Russian offensive in the area.[25] Russian forces reportedly
struck Kupyansk (45km northwest of Svatove) with S-300 surface-to-air
missiles.[26]</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks
west of Kreminna in order to regain lost positions along the
Svatove-Kreminna line on December 13. The Ukrainian General Staff stated
that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks near Novoyehorivka (35km
northwest of Kreminna), Makiivka (22km northwest of Kreminna),
Chervonopopivka (5km north of Kreminna), and Bilohorivka (10km south of
Kreminna).[27] A Russian milblogger warned that Ukrainian forces are
massing for a new offensive along the Svatove-Kreminna line and
concentrating manpower and equipment in this area.[28] The Russian
Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Ukrainian forces west of Kreminna
conducted unsuccessful ground attacks near Terny and Yampolivka.[29]
Another Russian source claimed that Russian troops are trying to push
Ukrainian detachments back across the Zherebets River, also west of
Kreminna.[30]</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><a
href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kharkiv%20Battle%20Map%20December%2013%2C2022.png"><img
src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kharkiv%20Battle%20Map%20December%2013%2C2022.png"
width="500" height="871" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong><span
style="text-decoration: underline;">Russian Main Effort—Eastern
Ukraine</span></strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong><span
style="text-decoration: underline;">Russian Subordinate Main
Effort—Donetsk Oblast</span></strong><strong> (Russian
objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed
territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Russian sources claimed that Russian troops
made marginal advances within Bakhmut on December 13. A Russian
milblogger reported that Wagner Group forces broke through Ukrainian
defensive lines in the eastern part of Bakhmut and established full
control of the Bakhmut Champagne Winery and "Siniat" enterprise.[31]
Russian milbloggers also claimed that Russian troops are advancing down
several streets in the southeastern and eastern sectors of Bakhmut.[32]
The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Ukrainian troops are continuing
to repel Russian assaults northeast of Bakhmut near Verkhnokamianske,
Soledar, Yakovlivka, and Bakhmutske and south of Bakhmut near
Klishchiivka, Kurdiumivka, and Mayorsk.[33] A Russian milblogger claimed
that Russian troops have established control of 90% of Opytne, 3km south
of Bakhmut.[34] Russian sources continue to emphasize heavy Ukrainian
losses and claim that Ukrainian troops are rotating or entirely
withdrawing from parts of Bakhmut.[35]</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Russian forces continued ground assaults in the
Avdiivka-Donetsk City area on December 13. The Ukrainian General Staff
reported that Russian troops unsuccessfully attacked in the areas of
Avdiivka and Marinka (on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk
City).[36] The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) 11th Regiment posted
footage of strikes on Ukrainian positions reportedly in Pervomaiske
(10km southwest of Avdiivka), and a Russian milblogger claimed that the
11th Regiment and "Somalia" battalion are active in repelling Ukrainian
counterattacks near Pervomaiske.[37] Russian sources additionally
claimed that Russian troops have taken control of the road that runs
from Marinka to Krasnohorivka (5km north of Marinka), which they
highlighted as a major blow for the Ukrainian grouping on the
southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City.[38] Geolocated footage shows
that Ukrainian forces have retaken positions east of Druzhby Prospekt in
central Marinka, suggesting that ground in Marinka’s city center is
constantly contested.[39] Russian sources continued to claim that
Ukrainian forces are conducting limited counterattacks in the face of
Russian advances southwest of Donetsk City in the Vuhledar area.[40]</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><a
href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20December%2013%2C2022.png"><img
src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20December%2013%2C2022.png"
width="500" height="759" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong><span
style="text-decoration: underline;">Supporting Effort—Southern
Axis</span></strong><strong> (Russian objective: Maintain
frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian
strikes)</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Russian forces may be withdrawing from certain
areas south of the Dnipro River as they continue fortifying rear
positions in occupied Kherson Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff
reported on December 13 that Russian forces in the Kherson direction are
rotating individual units and are withdrawing from Novomykhailivka (west
of the R47 highway 23km west of Henichesk) and Mykhailivka (on the T2209
highway 45km northwest of Henichesk).[41] Ukrainian officials have
previously stated that they aim to prevent Russian forces from being
able to approach the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River.[42] Images
posted on December 12 show Russian forces erecting dragon’s teeth
anti-tank fortifications near Viazivka, Zaporizhia Oblast (just west of
Melitopol on the E56 Kherson City-Melitopol highway) and Novotroitske
(northwest of Henichesk on the R47 Nova Kakhovka-Henichesk highway),
Kherson Oblast.[43] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian
forces continued to shell areas on the west (right) bank of the Dnipro
River, including Kherson City and its environs.[44]</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Likely Ukrainian actors downed a bridge in
Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast amid increased reports of Ukrainian strikes
against Russian military assets near Melitopol within the past few days.
Images from December 13 show significant damage and fallen spans of the
M14/E58 bridge across the Molochna River in Melitopol (roughly 100km
behind the front lines), and Russian occupation officials claimed that
Ukrainian "saboteurs" detonated 15-20kg of explosives to down the bridge
overnight.[45] Zaporizhia Oblast occupation officials claimed that
Russian authorities will erect a temporary bypass bridge within two
weeks and publicized alternate routes for ground transportation.[46]
Russian officials claimed that the bridge attack did not affect Russian
logistics routes between Melitopol and Crimea, but some milbloggers
claimed otherwise and criticized occupation officials for not guarding
the bridge.[47] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 13 that
Ukrainian strikes destroyed the command post of the Russian 58th
Combined Arms Army in Melitopol, and further strikes against Enerhodar,
Tokmak, and Hulyaipole cumulatively wounded 150 personnel and destroyed
three artillery installations and 10 pieces of equipment.[48] A Russian
milblogger noted that ongoing Ukrainian strikes against rear areas in
Zaporizhia Oblast resemble the Ukrainian strategy in advance of the
Kherson counteroffensive, and cautioned Russian forces to learn from
military failures in Kherson Oblast.[49]</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
announced on December 13 that it has made progress in negotiations
regarding the demilitarization of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
(ZNPP), and French President Emmanuel Macron claimed that both sides
agreed to the removal of Russian heavy weapons from the ZNPP grounds
(Ukraine has no weapons of any sort on the ZNPP grounds).[50] Macron
stated that negotiations are ongoing regarding the implementation of the
removal of Russian heavy weapons from the ZNPP.[51] Russian occupation
officials and milbloggers balked at Macron’s announcement, falsely
claiming that Macron’s statement included the removal of light weapons
from the ZNPP grounds.[52] Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official
Vladimir Rogov claimed that Russian forces do not store heavy weapons at
the ZNPP grounds and that the removal of light weapons, such as rifles,
would compromise the physical security of the plant.[53] ISW has
previously reported on satellite imagery demonstrating that Russian
forces have stored heavy weapons on and around the ZNPP grounds,
including under ZNPP infrastructure.[54] IAEA Director-General Rafael
Grossi stated that he is confident that all sides will reach an
agreement regarding the ZNPP soon.[55] An agreement regarding the
demilitarization of the ZNPP remains unlikely to constitute a full or
partial Russian military withdrawal from the ZNPP or Enerhodar, and
would not eliminate the ongoing threat to the ZNPP, as ISW has
previously assessed.[56]</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Russian forces continued to conduct routine
fire west of Hulyaipole and in Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv oblasts on
December 12. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces shelled
Nikopol and Marhanets, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and Ochakiv, Mykolaiv
Oblast.[57]</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><a
href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20December%2013%2C2022.png"><img
src="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20December%2013%2C2022.png"
width="500" height="785" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Note: ISW will report on activities in
Kherson Oblast as part of the Southern Axis in this and subsequent
updates. Ukraine’s counteroffensive in right-bank Kherson Oblast has
accomplished its stated objectives, so ISW will not present a
Southern Ukraine counteroffensive section until Ukrainian forces
resume counteroffensives in southern Ukraine.</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong><span
style="text-decoration: underline;">Mobilization and Force
Generation Efforts</span></strong><strong> (Russian objective:
Expand combat power without conducting general
mobilization)</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">The Wagner Group is continuing efforts to use
recruits from Russian prisons to generate combat power. The Ukrainian
Resistance Center reported on December 13 that Wagner Group Financier
Yevgeniy Prigozhin has sent over 23,000 Russian prisoners to the
Ukrainian front lines as part of his extended effort to bolster his
political influence and potentially position himself as Putin’s
successor.[58] The Ukrainian Resistance Center claimed that Russian
society does not care about the fate of prisoners, allowing Prigozhin to
use them as cannon fodder in high-risk and high-mortality operations
while keeping Wagner Group leadership out of combat.[59] Russian
opposition outlet <em>Meduza </em>amplified a December 12 interview with
a Wagner POW and Russian convict, Vyacheslav Izmailov, who stated that
Wagner promised prisoner recruits a six-month contract, 200,000 rubles,
privileges for their families, complete release from their criminal
punishment upon completion of the contract, and a safer position in
trenches along the second front line in Ukraine.[60] Izmailov stated
that Wagner did not keep any of these promises and, after two weeks of
training, the prisoner recruits were immediately thrown into the front
line where the mortality rate was extremely high.[61] Izmailov stated
that 70 Wagner convicts of his 90-person platoon were killed.[62] </p>
<p style="text-align: left;">The Ukrainian General Staff reported that
Russian forces have intensified forced mobilization in occupied
territories. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces in
Donetsk Oblast have intensified forced mobilization in an effort to
replenish losses in the Russian 1st Army Corps (forces of the Donetsk
People’s Republic).[63] The report stated that Russian forces in
Horlivka, Donetsk are subjecting residents to forced conscriptions,
especially residents with previous armored unit experience.[64]</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Russian authorities are continuing efforts to
facilitate the war using legislative measures. The Russian State Duma
adopted the first reading of a draft law on December 13 which simplifies
the transfer of military production from federal authorities to Russian
nongovernment organizations as part of the State Defense Order.[65] The
initiative is designed to ensure that the production of military
equipment—like weapons, ammunition, spare vehicle parts, special
components, and devices—remains proactive and that all such state
production tasks are accomplished in a timely manner by lessening
bureaucratic restraints on production.[66] A prominent Russian
milblogger stated that this draft law is meant to eliminate the
organizational and bureaucratic obstacles that slow down the efficiency
of the war.[67]</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">The Russian MoD, supported by various
milbloggers, is attempting to establish a façade of attention to the
needs of mobilized personnel. One Russian milblogger claimed that
Russian forces are solving their problems and that professionalism and
order among mobilized personnel are growing as the Russian forces become
a "single organism."[68] The milblogger claimed that the Russian MoD has
supplied forces with new equipment and technology, such as anti-drone
guns, and that Russian forces improved their warfighting tactics such as
artillery target-to-fire time.[69] Another Russian milblogger claimed
that the Russian MoD responded to a video complaint from mobilized
personnel concerning insufficient equipment by sending that unit new
equipment.[70] The milblogger stated that the Russian public should be
proud of what the Russian MoD accomplished and that it is the "best in
the world."[71]</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Russian forces continued to experience issues
with basic equipment and provisions for mobilized recruits. An
open-source intelligence aggregator amplified a report that mobilized
conscripts at a training base in Siberia are falling sick with
bronchitis and pneumonia <em>en masse</em> likely due to living in tents
in –30*C (-22*F) temperatures.[72] Open-source intelligence aggregators
and a Ukrainian source also circulated photos of Russian dragon’s teeth
barricades decaying in an unspecified location in Ukraine due to harsh
weather conditions compared to a photo of dragon’s teeth made during
World War II that appear less degraded despite their decades of age
difference.[73]</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong><span
style="text-decoration: underline;">Activity in Russian-occupied
Areas</span></strong><strong> (Russian objective: consolidate
administrative control of and annexed areas; forcibly integrate
Ukrainian civilians into Russian sociocultural, economic, military,
and governance systems)</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Ukrainian partisans conducted an assassination
attempt against a Russian occupation official on December 12. The
Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Ukrainian partisans conducted
an improvised explosive device (IED) attack against Kherson Oblast
occupation Deputy Head Vitaly Bulyuk in his car in Skadovsk, Kherson
Oblast, killing the car’s driver and injuring Bulyuk.[74] Kherson Oblast
occupation head Vladimir Saldo condemned the assassination attempt,
claiming that "Ukrainian terrorists" committed the attack.[75] Saldo
stated that Bulyuk’s resulting injuries are not life-threatening.[76]
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Russian authorities announced on December 13
that they are currently only integrating occupied Donetsk and Luhansk
oblasts into the Russian judicial system. Russian State Duma Committee
on State Construction and Legislation First Deputy Chairperson Irina
Pankina stated that only legislation on the integration of the Donetsk
and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR) into the Russian judicial
system is "at a high stage of readiness," explicitly stating that the
legislation "does not apply to Zaporizhia and Kherson" oblasts.[77]
Pankina did not state a reason for the delay in legislation for occupied
Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts.[78] A Russian milblogger claimed that
Pankina's announcement is "alarming" given that Russia considers all
four illegally occupied territories as "inalienable territories of the
Russian Federation."[79] Such disparate treatment of occupied
territories may contribute to setting information conditions for the
eventual territorial loss of some or all of Kherson and Zaporizhia
oblasts, whether intentional or not, and suggests constant confusion in
Russia’s annexation agenda. </p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Note: ISW does not receive any
classified material from any source, uses only publicly available
information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and
Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available
satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these
reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes
of each update. </strong> <span style="font-size: 13.008px;">
</span></p>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
</div>
<p style="text-align: left;">[1] <a
href="https://t.me/modmilby/20635">https://t.me/modmilby/20635</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[2] <a
href="https://twitter.com/charter_97/status/1602653962489962496?s=20&t=ugpibJSGu-y70HcB76hbyw">https://twitter.com/charter_97/status/1602653962489962496?s=20&t=ugpibJS...</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[3] <a
href="https://t.me/stranaua/80168">https://t.me/stranaua/80168</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[4] <a
href="https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1602249174908534785;">https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1602249174908534785;</a>
<a
href="https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1602249168579330050">https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1602249168579330050</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[5] <a
href="https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1602656859512602624">https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1602656859512602624</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[6] <a
href="https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-11">https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass...</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[7] <a
href="https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-11">https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass...</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[8] <a
href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0odysZNsue1X4xD9DrKrfUXaSXmBtthHEgRwMfAms7xEyvyU6N9MAyRYxgkALR2u5l;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0odysZNsue1X4xD9DrKr...</a>
<a
href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid029PGV2knRTJUyRyubs4xRQuaAKZDWh5NJNYFqB8qtNofCDjngbrWXt2EQTzuzFysAl">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid029PGV2knRTJUyRyubs4...</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[9] <a
href="https://www.ukrinform dot">https://www.ukrinform dot</a>
ua/rubric-ato/3633355-zaava-lukasenka-pro-perevirku-boegotovnosti-biloruskoi-armii-e-nagnitannam-situacii-dpsu.html
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[10] <a
href="https://t.me/rybar/41971;">https://t.me/rybar/41971;</a> <a
href="https://t.me/rybar/41591">https://t.me/rybar/41591</a></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[11] <a
href="https://t.me/rybar/41971">https://t.me/rybar/41971</a></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[12] <a
href="https://t.me/grishkafilippov/11364; https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/20582 ; https://t.me/grey_zone/16231 ">https://t.me/grishkafilippov/11364;
https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/2...</a></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[13] <a
href="https://t.me/grishkafilippov/11364">https://t.me/grishkafilippov/11364</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[14] <a
href="https://www.axios.com/2022/12/12/ukraine-war-russia-missiles-iran-limit;">https://www.axios.com/2022/12/12/ukraine-war-russia-missiles-iran-limit;</a>
<a href="https://t.me/maymun5/18091">https://t.me/maymun5/18091</a></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[15] <a
href="https://www.axios.com/2022/12/12/ukraine-war-russia-missiles-iran-limit;">https://www.axios.com/2022/12/12/ukraine-war-russia-missiles-iran-limit;</a>
<a href="https://t.me/maymun5/18091">https://t.me/maymun5/18091</a></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[16] <a
href="https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%203007/v3007.pdf;">https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%203007/v3007.pdf;</a>
<a
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/12/world/europe/russia-ukraine-missiles.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/12/world/europe/russia-ukraine-missiles....</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[17] <a
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/12/world/europe/russia-ukraine-missiles.html?auth=login-facebook">https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/12/world/europe/russia-ukraine-missiles....</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[18] <a
href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/13/politics/us-patriot-missile-defense-system-ukraine/index.html;">https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/13/politics/us-patriot-missile-defense-syste...</a>
<a
href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-finalizing-plans-send-patriot-missile-defense-system-ukraine-officials-2022-12-13/">https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-finalizing-plans-send-patriot-mi...</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[19] <a
href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/13/politics/us-patriot-missile-defense-system-ukraine/index.html">https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/13/politics/us-patriot-missile-defense-syste...</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[20] <a
href="https://sozd.duma.gov dot">https://sozd.duma.gov dot</a>
ru/bill/253939-8; <a
href="https://meduza.io/cards/diversantov-priravnyayut-k-terroristam-opravdanie-diversiy-v-nekotoryh-sluchayah-stanet-prestupleniem">https://meduza.io/cards/diversantov-priravnyayut-k-terroristam-opravdani...</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[21] <a
href="https://novayagazeta dot">https://novayagazeta dot</a>
eu/articles/2022/12/12/vragonostsy</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[22] <a
href="https://www.interfax-russia dot">https://www.interfax-russia
dot</a>
ru/main/bortnikov-otmetil-rost-ugrozy-teraktov-v-regionah-rf-v-svyazi-s-deyatelnostyu-ukrainskih-specsluzhb;
<a href="https://t.me/readovkanews/48811; https://meduza dot">https://t.me/readovkanews/48811;
https://meduza dot</a>
io/feature/2022/12/13/10-let-nazad-fsb-otchityvalas-o-predotvraschenii-desyatkov-teraktov-kotorye-yakoby-gotovili-islamisty-teper-ona-predotvraschaet-terakty-sbu-i-ukrainskih-natsionalistov
; <a href="https://novayagazeta dot">https://novayagazeta dot</a>
eu/articles/2022/12/12/vragonostsy</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[23] <a
href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar120922;">https://isw.pub/UkrWar120922;</a>
<a href="https://isw.pub/UkrWar120922">https://isw.pub/UkrWar120922</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[24] <a
href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid029PGV2knRTJUyRyubs4xRQuaAKZDWh5NJNYFqB8qtNofCDjngbrWXt2EQTzuzFysAl">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid029PGV2knRTJUyRyubs4...</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[25] <a
href="https://t.me/rybar/41969">https://t.me/rybar/41969</a></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[26] <a
href="https://t.me/stranaua/80134; https://t.me/stranaua/80126;">https://t.me/stranaua/80134;
https://t.me/stranaua/80126;</a> <a
href="https://t.me/synegubov/5027">https://t.me/synegubov/5027</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[27] <a
href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid029PGV2knRTJUyRyubs4xRQuaAKZDWh5NJNYFqB8qtNofCDjngbrWXt2EQTzuzFysAl">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid029PGV2knRTJUyRyubs4...</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[28] <a
href="https://t.me/rybar/41969">https://t.me/rybar/41969</a></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[29] <a
href="https://t.me/mod_russia/22630;">https://t.me/mod_russia/22630;</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[30] <a
href="https://t.me/mod_russia/22630; https://t.me/wargonzo/9751">https://t.me/mod_russia/22630;
https://t.me/wargonzo/9751</a></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[31] <a
href="https://t.me/rybar/41972">https://t.me/rybar/41972</a></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[32] <a
href="https://t.me/wargonzo/9769; https://t.me/rybar/41972">https://t.me/wargonzo/9769;
https://t.me/rybar/41972</a></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[33] <a
href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid029PGV2knRTJUyRyubs4xRQuaAKZDWh5NJNYFqB8qtNofCDjngbrWXt2EQTzuzFysAl">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid029PGV2knRTJUyRyubs4...</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"> </p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[34] <a
href="https://t.me/wargonzo/9769 ">https://t.me/wargonzo/9769 </a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[35] <a
href="https://t.me/mod_russia/22630; https://t.me/kommunist/14173; https://t.me/rybar/41972; https://t.me/RtrDonetsk/13087; https://t.me/miroshnik_r/9844">https://t.me/mod_russia/22630;
https://t.me/kommunist/14173; https://t...</a></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[36] <a
href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid029PGV2knRTJUyRyubs4xRQuaAKZDWh5NJNYFqB8qtNofCDjngbrWXt2EQTzuzFysAl">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid029PGV2knRTJUyRyubs4...</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[37] <a
href="https://t.me/nm_dnr/9585">https://t.me/nm_dnr/9585</a>\; <a
href="https://t.me/milchronicles/1388">https://t.me/milchronicles/1388</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[38] <a
href="https://t.me/kommunist/14168; https://t.me/epoddubny/14116; https://t.me/russkiy_opolchenec/35256">https://t.me/kommunist/14168;
https://t.me/epoddubny/14116; https://t....</a></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[39] <a
href="https://twitter.com/MalcontentmentT/status/1602554245181734912">https://twitter.com/MalcontentmentT/status/1602554245181734912</a><br /><a
href="https://twitter.com/MalcontentmentT/status/1602554250852438016 ">https://twitter.com/MalcontentmentT/status/1602554250852438016
</a></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[40] <a
href="https://t.me/mod_russia/22630; https://t.me/milchronicles/1387 ">https://t.me/mod_russia/22630;
https://t.me/milchronicles/1387 </a></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[41] <a
href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid029PGV2knRTJUyRyubs4xRQuaAKZDWh5NJNYFqB8qtNofCDjngbrWXt2EQTzuzFysAl">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid029PGV2knRTJUyRyubs4...</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[42] <a
href="https://suspilne">https://suspilne</a> dot
media/336280-vijskovi-rf-zdijsnuut-peredislokaciu-svoih-pidrozdiliv-na-hersonsini/
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[43] <a
href="https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1602406567340609558?s=20&t=9H90SnSMC2RGBBD-L2J01g">https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1602406567340609558?s=20&t=9H...</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[44] <a
href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0odysZNsue1X4xD9DrKrfUXaSXmBtthHEgRwMfAms7xEyvyU6N9MAyRYxgkALR2u5l;">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0odysZNsue1X4xD9DrKr...</a>
<a
href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid029PGV2knRTJUyRyubs4xRQuaAKZDWh5NJNYFqB8qtNofCDjngbrWXt2EQTzuzFysAl">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid029PGV2knRTJUyRyubs4...</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[45] <a
href="https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1602385344535617539?s=20&t=7KUHJj3gEq8UJ8kuEez_pA;">https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1602385344535617539?s=20&t=7K...</a>
<a
href="https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1602433326526103553?s=20&t=7KUHJj3gEq8UJ8kuEez_pA;">https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1602433326526103553?s=20&t=7K...</a>
<a
href="https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1602435347031400458?s=20&t=7KUHJj3gEq8UJ8kuEez_pA;">https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1602435347031400458?s=20&t=7K...</a>
<a
href="https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1602603173528625152?s=20&t=0xztjiV2J7X-tTo7tWBgXQ; https://t.co/xLtxywltpy;">https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1602603173528625152?s=20&t=0xztjiV...</a>
<a
href="https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1602378025617821696">https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1602378025617821696</a>
; <a
href="https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1602375838821126145">https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1602375838821126145</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[46] <a
href="https://t.me/BalitskyEV/598;">https://t.me/BalitskyEV/598;</a>
<a
href="https://t.me/readovkanews/48802;">https://t.me/readovkanews/48802;</a>
<a href="https://t.me/vrogov/6480;">https://t.me/vrogov/6480;</a> <a
href="https://t.me/stranaua/80200">https://t.me/stranaua/80200</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[47] <a
href="https://t.me/BalitskyEV/598; https://t.me/readovkanews/48802; https://t.me/vrogov/6480; https://t.me/stranaua/80200; https://t.me/vrogov/6474; https://t.me/m0sc0wcalling/16173;">https://t.me/BalitskyEV/598;
https://t.me/readovkanews/48802; https://...</a> <a
href="https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/20565; https://t.me/militarymaps/30969;">https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/20565;
https://t.me/militarymaps/30969;</a> <a
href="https://t.me/sashakots/37602">https://t.me/sashakots/37602</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[48] <a
href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0odysZNsue1X4xD9DrKrfUXaSXmBtthHEgRwMfAms7xEyvyU6N9MAyRYxgkALR2u5l">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0odysZNsue1X4xD9DrKr...</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[49] <a
href="https://t.me/rybar/41968">https://t.me/rybar/41968</a></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[50] <a
href="https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-136-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine;">https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-136-iaea-director-g...</a>
<a
href="https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-zaporizhzhia-removing-heavy-weapons-macron/32174372.html;">https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-zaporizhzhia-removing-heavy-weapons-macr...</a>
<a
href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frances-macron-discussion-modalities-over-removing-heavy-weapons-ukraines-2022-12-13/">https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frances-macron-discussion-modalitie...</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[51] <a
href="https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-zaporizhzhia-removing-heavy-weapons-macron/32174372.html;">https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-zaporizhzhia-removing-heavy-weapons-macr...</a>
<a
href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frances-macron-discussion-modalities-over-removing-heavy-weapons-ukraines-2022-12-13/">https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frances-macron-discussion-modalitie...</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[52] <a
href="https://t.me/vrogov/6488;">https://t.me/vrogov/6488;</a> <a
href="https://t.me/m0sc0wcalling/16174">https://t.me/m0sc0wcalling/16174</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[53] <a
href="https://t.me/vrogov/6488">https://t.me/vrogov/6488</a></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[54] <a
href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-8;">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...</a>
<a
href="https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august6;">https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass...</a>
<a
href="https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-8;">https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass...</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><a
href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-29">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[55] <a
href="https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-136-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine">https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-136-iaea-director-g...</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[56] <a
href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-27">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...</a>
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[57] <a
href="https://t.me/zoda_gov_ua/15423 ; https://t.me/zoda_gov_ua/15427 ; https://t.me/zoda_gov_ua/15429 ; https://t.me/zoda_gov_ua/15438; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0odysZNsue1X4xD9DrKrfUXaSXmBtthHEgRwMfAms7xEyvyU6N9MAyRYxgkALR2u5l ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid029PGV2knRTJUyRyubs4xRQuaAKZDWh5NJNYFqB8qtNofCDjngbrWXt2EQTzuzFysAl ">https://t.me/zoda_gov_ua/15423
; https://t.me/zoda_gov_ua/15427 ; ht...</a></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[58] <a
href="https://sprotyv">https://sprotyv</a>(dot)mod.gov.ua/2022/12/13/polyuvannya-na-vagnerivcziv/
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[59] <a
href="https://sprotyv">https://sprotyv</a>(dot)mod.gov.ua/2022/12/13/polyuvannya-na-vagnerivcziv/
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[60] <a
href="https://meduza">https://meduza</a>(dot)io/feature/2022/12/13/v-ukrainskih-telegram-kanalah-opublikovali-intervyu-byvshego-zaklyuchennogo-zaverbovannogo-v-chvk-vagnera
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[61] <a
href="https://meduza">https://meduza</a>(dot)io/feature/2022/12/13/v-ukrainskih-telegram-kanalah-opublikovali-intervyu-byvshego-zaklyuchennogo-zaverbovannogo-v-chvk-vagnera
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[62] <a
href="https://meduza">https://meduza</a>(dot)io/feature/2022/12/13/v-ukrainskih-telegram-kanalah-opublikovali-intervyu-byvshego-zaklyuchennogo-zaverbovannogo-v-chvk-vagnera
</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">[63] <a
href="https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0odysZNsue1X4xD9DrKrfUXaSXmBtthHEgRwMfAms7xEyvyU6N9MAyRYxgkALR2u5l">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0odysZNsue1X4xD9DrKr...</a>
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