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v5.18.0312

@rsvp rsvp tagged this 12 Mar 17:24
Update and fix fred-oil-brent-wti.ipynb per issue #2.
New shortcut: https://git.io/oil for crude oil markets.
New introductions regarding petrochemicals
and the Boltzmann portfolio of oils.

nb/fred-debt-pop.ipynb: Update preamble and data.
Use gemrat() instead of georet().
Append Appendix 1. New shortcut: https://git.io/debtpop

fecon235.py: Add foreholt() function which
supercedes yi_fred.holtfred(), but
move holtfred() to fecon235 module for backward compatibility.
Then at lib/yi_fred.py: comment out holtfred() with notification.
We only need to maintain foreholt().
Pre-2016 notebooks with updated import and preambles should work.

Fix fred-inflation.ipynb per issue #2, and optimize forecast.
Holt-Winters model now uses robust optimized parameters.
Unified inflation has its own section.
Geometric mean rate introduced.
Drop section on correlation to gold.
Summary combines three orthogonal forecasts.

fecon235.py: Add foreinfl() to forecast Unified Inflation.
The best documentation for this function is nb/fred-inflation.ipynb
which shows how it was derived by interacting with data and plots.
This single function distills the forecasting process
derived in the notebook. Further discussed in new Appendix 2.
Assets 2