table descriptions

wmentrekin · Oct 29, 2020 · 1a00414 · 1a00414
1 parent 24a0226
commit 1a00414
Show file tree

Hide file tree

Showing 10 changed files with 128 additions and 106 deletions.
diff --git a/Model.py b/Model.py
@@ -493,7 +493,6 @@ def write_results():
 	file.close()
 	file = open("tables/closest_margins.html", 'w')
 	file.write("""<HTML> <body>
-                    	<h2>Closest Projected Margins of Victory</h2>
                             <table class="center">
                               {0}  
                             </table>
@@ -527,7 +526,6 @@ def write_results():
 	file.close()
 	file = open("tables/lopsided_margins.html", 'w')
 	file.write("""<HTML> <body>
-                    	<h2>Most Lopsided Projected Margins of Victory</h2>
                             <table class="center">
                               {0}  
                             </table>
@@ -564,7 +562,6 @@ def write_results():
 	file.close()
 	file = open("tables/tossups.html", 'w')
 	file.write("""<HTML> <body>
-                    	<h2>Projected Tossup States</h2>
                             <table class="center">
                               {0}  
                             </table>
@@ -608,7 +605,6 @@ def write_results():
 	file.close()
 	file = open("tables/flips.html", 'w')
 	file.write("""<HTML> <body>
-                    	<h2>Projected Flipped States</h2>
                             <table class="center">
                               {0}  
                             </table>
@@ -641,7 +637,6 @@ def write_results():
 	file.close()
 	file = open("tables/results.html", 'w')
 	file.write("""<HTML> <body>
-                    	<h2>Full Results</h2>
                             <table class="center">
                               {0}  
                             </table>
@@ -662,7 +657,6 @@ def write_results():
 	file.close()
 	file = open("tables/win_prob.html", 'w')
 	file.write("""<HTML> <body>
-                    	<h2>Win Probabilities & Expected Electoral Votes</h2>
                             <table class="center">
                               {0}  
                             </table>

diff --git a/index.html b/index.html
@@ -73,8 +73,9 @@ <h1>2020 United States Presidential Election Model</h1>
     </p>
   </header>
 
+  <h1>Methods</h1>
+
   <section>
-    <h1>Methods</h1>
     <p>
       <b>Disclaimer</b>: This model is not an official prediction. I am in no way attesting to its potential accuracy or claiming it to be correct. 
       The point of this project was to be a learning exercise for me as well as an outlet for an interest of mine. The data you see here is purely a result 
@@ -103,33 +104,66 @@ <h1>Methods</h1>
 
   <h1>Results</h1>
 
-  <div class="container">
-    <h2>Average Margin of Victory</h2>
-    <img src="results/map.png" alt="Average Margin of Victory" width="800" height="536">
-  </div>
-
-  <div class="container">
-    <div class="row">
-      <div class="col">
-        <div w3-include-html="tables/closest_margins.html"></div>
-      </div>
-      <div class="col">
-        <div w3-include-html="tables/lopsided_margins.html"></div>
-      </div>
-      <div class="col">
-        <div w3-include-html="tables/tossups.html"></div>
-      </div>
-      <div class="col">
-        <div w3-include-html="tables/flips.html"></div>
-      </div>
-      <div class="col">
-        <div w3-include-html="tables/results.html"></div>
-      </div>
-      <div class="col">
-        <div w3-include-html="tables/win_prob.html"></div>
+  <section>
+    <div class="container">
+      <h2>Average Margin of Victory</h2>
+      <p>
+        In the model, there are 10,000 scenarios that were run. This map visualizes the average margin of victory of either candidate in each state on a color scale. 
+        States in blue are projected to be won by former Vice President Joe Biden, whereas states in red are projected to be won by incumbent President Donald Trump. 
+        The darker the color of the state, the larger the margin expected for the winning candidate.
+      </p>
+      <img src="results/map.png" alt="Average Margin of Victory" width="800" height="536">
+    </div>
+    <div class="container">
+      <div class="row">
+        <div class="col">
+          <h2>Closest Projected Margins of Victory</h2>
+          <p>
+            The table below shows states where the winner is projected to win by less than 10% of the vote.
+          </p>
+          <div w3-include-html="tables/closest_margins.html"></div>
+        </div>
+        <div class="col">
+          <h2>Most Lopsided Projected Margins of Victory</h2>
+          <p>
+            The table below shows states where the winner is projected to win by more than 25% of the vote.
+          </p>
+          <div w3-include-html="tables/lopsided_margins.html"></div>
+        </div>
+        <div class="col">
+          <h2>Projected Tossup States</h2>
+          <p>
+            The table below shows states where both candidates have at least a 40% chance of winning.
+          </p>
+          <div w3-include-html="tables/tossups.html"></div>
+        </div>
+        <div class="col">
+          <h2>Projected Flipped States</h2>
+          <p>
+            This table below shows states where the projected winner in 2020 is from a different party than the one which won in 2016.
+          </p>
+          <div w3-include-html="tables/flips.html"></div>
+        </div>
+        <div class="col">
+          <h2>Full Results</h2>
+          <p>
+            The table below shows the full results of the model in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. 
+            Below you can see, for each state, the projected vote share for either candidate, the chance of victory, and the projected vote margin from the model.
+          </p>
+          <div w3-include-html="tables/results.html"></div>
+        </div>
+        <div class="col">
+          <h2>Win Probabilities & Expected Electoral Votes</h2>
+          <p>
+            The table below represents the expected value of electoral votes and chance of winning the electoral college for either candidate. 
+            The expected value of electoral votes was found by multiplying both candidates' probabilities of winning in every state by the electoral votes of every state. 
+            The chances of victory are simply a proportion of the scenarios in my model in which either candidate wins the electoral college.
+          </p>
+          <div w3-include-html="tables/win_prob.html"></div>
+        </div>
       </div>
     </div>
-  </div>
+  </section>
 
   <h1>Insights</h1>
 

diff --git a/results/map.png b/results/map.png
diff --git a/results/win_prob.csv b/results/win_prob.csv
@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
 Expected Electoral Votes: Joe Biden,327
 Expected Electoral Votes: Donald Trump,211
-Chance of Victory: Joe Biden,97.64%
-Chance of Victory: Donald Trump,2.36%
+Chance of Victory: Joe Biden,97.74%
+Chance of Victory: Donald Trump,2.26%
diff --git a/tables/closest_margins.html b/tables/closest_margins.html
@@ -1,24 +1,23 @@
 <HTML> <body>
-                    	<h2>Closest Projected Margins of Victory</h2>
                             <table class="center">
                               <tr><td>State</td><td>Projected Margin</td><td>Projected Winner</td></tr>
-<tr><td>Arizona</td><td>0.57%</td><td>Joe Biden</td></tr>
-<tr><td>Georgia</td><td>1.19%</td><td>Donald Trump</td></tr>
-<tr><td>North Carolina</td><td>1.19%</td><td>Joe Biden</td></tr>
-<tr><td>Nevada</td><td>1.25%</td><td>Joe Biden</td></tr>
-<tr><td>Ohio</td><td>1.26%</td><td>Donald Trump</td></tr>
-<tr><td>Florida</td><td>2.06%</td><td>Joe Biden</td></tr>
-<tr><td>Wisconsin</td><td>2.64%</td><td>Joe Biden</td></tr>
-<tr><td>Texas</td><td>3.47%</td><td>Donald Trump</td></tr>
-<tr><td>Michigan</td><td>4.01%</td><td>Joe Biden</td></tr>
-<tr><td>Pennsylvania</td><td>4.05%</td><td>Joe Biden</td></tr>
-<tr><td>Iowa</td><td>4.46%</td><td>Donald Trump</td></tr>
+<tr><td>North Carolina</td><td>0.41%</td><td>Joe Biden</td></tr>
+<tr><td>Arizona</td><td>0.58%</td><td>Joe Biden</td></tr>
+<tr><td>Ohio</td><td>1.1%</td><td>Donald Trump</td></tr>
+<tr><td>Georgia</td><td>1.13%</td><td>Donald Trump</td></tr>
+<tr><td>Nevada</td><td>1.24%</td><td>Joe Biden</td></tr>
+<tr><td>Florida</td><td>2.0%</td><td>Joe Biden</td></tr>
+<tr><td>Wisconsin</td><td>2.61%</td><td>Joe Biden</td></tr>
+<tr><td>Texas</td><td>3.48%</td><td>Donald Trump</td></tr>
+<tr><td>Michigan</td><td>4.03%</td><td>Joe Biden</td></tr>
+<tr><td>Pennsylvania</td><td>4.07%</td><td>Joe Biden</td></tr>
+<tr><td>Iowa</td><td>4.47%</td><td>Donald Trump</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Virginia</td><td>4.84%</td><td>Joe Biden</td></tr>
-<tr><td>Minnesota</td><td>5.03%</td><td>Joe Biden</td></tr>
-<tr><td>New Hampshire</td><td>5.48%</td><td>Joe Biden</td></tr>
-<tr><td>South Carolina</td><td>7.62%</td><td>Donald Trump</td></tr>
-<tr><td>Alaska</td><td>8.19%</td><td>Donald Trump</td></tr>
-<tr><td>Colorado</td><td>9.78%</td><td>Joe Biden</td></tr>  
+<tr><td>Minnesota</td><td>4.91%</td><td>Joe Biden</td></tr>
+<tr><td>New Hampshire</td><td>5.39%</td><td>Joe Biden</td></tr>
+<tr><td>South Carolina</td><td>7.58%</td><td>Donald Trump</td></tr>
+<tr><td>Alaska</td><td>8.11%</td><td>Donald Trump</td></tr>
+<tr><td>Colorado</td><td>9.92%</td><td>Joe Biden</td></tr>  
                             </table>
                         </body>  
                   </HTML>
diff --git a/tables/flips.html b/tables/flips.html
@@ -1,13 +1,12 @@
 <HTML> <body>
-                    	<h2>Projected Flipped States</h2>
                             <table class="center">
                               <tr><td>State</td><td>2016 Winner</td><td>2016 Margin</td><td>2020 Projected Winner</td><td>2020 Projected Margin</td></tr>
-<tr><td>North Carolina</td><td>Donald Trump</td><td>3.66%</td><td>Joe Biden</td><td>1.19%</td></tr>
-<tr><td>Pennsylvania</td><td>Donald Trump</td><td>0.72%</td><td>Joe Biden</td><td>4.05%</td></tr>
-<tr><td>Michigan</td><td>Donald Trump</td><td>0.22%</td><td>Joe Biden</td><td>4.01%</td></tr>
-<tr><td>Arizona</td><td>Donald Trump</td><td>3.55%</td><td>Joe Biden</td><td>0.57%</td></tr>
-<tr><td>Wisconsin</td><td>Donald Trump</td><td>0.76%</td><td>Joe Biden</td><td>2.64%</td></tr>
-<tr><td>Florida</td><td>Donald Trump</td><td>1.2%</td><td>Joe Biden</td><td>2.06%</td></tr>  
+<tr><td>Pennsylvania</td><td>Donald Trump</td><td>0.72%</td><td>Joe Biden</td><td>4.07%</td></tr>
+<tr><td>Michigan</td><td>Donald Trump</td><td>0.22%</td><td>Joe Biden</td><td>4.03%</td></tr>
+<tr><td>Arizona</td><td>Donald Trump</td><td>3.55%</td><td>Joe Biden</td><td>0.58%</td></tr>
+<tr><td>North Carolina</td><td>Donald Trump</td><td>3.66%</td><td>Joe Biden</td><td>0.41%</td></tr>
+<tr><td>Wisconsin</td><td>Donald Trump</td><td>0.76%</td><td>Joe Biden</td><td>2.61%</td></tr>
+<tr><td>Florida</td><td>Donald Trump</td><td>1.2%</td><td>Joe Biden</td><td>2.0%</td></tr>  
                             </table>
                         </body>  
                   </HTML>
diff --git a/tables/lopsided_margins.html b/tables/lopsided_margins.html
@@ -1,21 +1,20 @@
 <HTML> <body>
-                    	<h2>Most Lopsided Projected Margins of Victory</h2>
                             <table class="center">
                               <tr><td>State</td><td>Projected Margin</td><td>Projected Winner</td></tr>
 <tr><td>District of Columbia</td><td>86.79%</td><td>Joe Biden</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Wyoming</td><td>46.3%</td><td>Donald Trump</td></tr>
 <tr><td>West Virginia</td><td>42.09%</td><td>Donald Trump</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Oklahoma</td><td>36.4%</td><td>Donald Trump</td></tr>
 <tr><td>North Dakota</td><td>35.78%</td><td>Donald Trump</td></tr>
-<tr><td>Massachusetts</td><td>32.48%</td><td>Joe Biden</td></tr>
+<tr><td>Massachusetts</td><td>32.46%</td><td>Joe Biden</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Hawaii</td><td>32.2%</td><td>Joe Biden</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Idaho</td><td>31.79%</td><td>Donald Trump</td></tr>
-<tr><td>California</td><td>29.5%</td><td>Joe Biden</td></tr>
+<tr><td>California</td><td>29.53%</td><td>Joe Biden</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Arkansas</td><td>26.91%</td><td>Donald Trump</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Maryland</td><td>26.41%</td><td>Joe Biden</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Vermont</td><td>26.4%</td><td>Joe Biden</td></tr>
-<tr><td>New York</td><td>25.43%</td><td>Joe Biden</td></tr>
-<tr><td>Nebraska</td><td>25.02%</td><td>Donald Trump</td></tr>  
+<tr><td>New York</td><td>25.4%</td><td>Joe Biden</td></tr>
+<tr><td>Nebraska</td><td>25.01%</td><td>Donald Trump</td></tr>  
                             </table>
                         </body>  
                   </HTML>