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wmentrekin committed Oct 29, 2020
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Expand Up @@ -169,7 +169,7 @@ <h1>Insights</h1>
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The first interesting result that I noted while getting the first results of this model were how some states have very slim projected margins
while the candidate favored to win had very high chances of victory. For example, Donald Trump is expected to win South Carolina and Alask by
while the candidate favored to win had very high chances of victory. For example, Donald Trump is expected to win South Carolina and Alaska by
margins of less than 10%, yet has more than 80% chance of victory in both states. Likewise, Joe Biden is expected to win both Minnesota and Virginia by
margins of less than 5%, yet has more than 90% chance of victory in both states. This is probably a result of the polling data in these states having low variance and error.
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Lastly, my model gives Joe Biden an almost guaranteed victory in the electoral college. While many models and pundits show Biden as the favorite, I am wary of the results of my own model.
In general, I believe that my results don't paint an unrealistic picture. The goal was not to definitively predict the winner of the election, but rather to project the chances of victory and vote shares in each state.
Nonetheless, Joe Biden wins in almost every scenario. I believe that my model's victory chances don't necessarily represent an accurate number, but that they do reflect the narrow path
to victory for the incumbent president. While Joe Biden has many paths to the presidency (winning in the Rust Belt, the South, or the Southwest), Trump's chance rely heavily on repeating as closely his
In general, I believe that my results don't paint an unrealistic picture, but that some of the numbers can be potentially misleading. The goal was not to definitively predict the winner of the election,
but rather to project the chances of victory and vote shares in each state. Nonetheless, Joe Biden wins in almost every scenario. I believe that my model's victory chances don't necessarily represent an accurate number,
but that they do reflect the narrow path to victory for the incumbent president. While Joe Biden has many paths to the presidency (winning in the Rust Belt, the South, or the Southwest), Trump's chance rely heavily on repeating as closely his
victory in 2016, which relied heavily on slim margins in key states. While this model gives the president decent chances in states he needs to win, such as Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida,
there are not many scenarios where my model has him winning all of enough of them to secure a victory. It shows that Biden can win either by close margins or in a landslide, but that if Trump wins, it will be a narrow victory.
My model, regardless of how accurate it turns out to be, shows that this election is not unlike 2016, in that this is the Democrats' election to lose and that Donald Trump needs to perform in a very specific way to win another term.
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